Analysts: Trump's "five-day truce" is coming to an end, Bitcoin support is facing test

The U.S. Department of Defense is preparing for a "fatal blow" to Iran. Bitcoin once again fell below US$70,000, a drop of about 3% in 24 hours. The trigger for the decline was Axios 'report that the Pentagon was developing a military plan against Iran, with options including ground forces and a "massive bombing operation." Analysts said Trump's five-day moratorium on Iran's energy infrastructure will expire on Friday, making Bitcoin's support fragile. Glassnode said that the cost base for short-term positions (purchases in the past month) is approximately $70,200, which is the current key support; the upper resistance is at the cost base for 1 to 3 months of positions at $82,200. However, the accumulation of buying orders at this support level is limited."Before a more solid buying order is established, the probability of falling below this level cannot be ignored." Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, said that the $70,200 level is more likely to be tested repeatedly rather than broken through one step, and current price behavior shows "more like defensive accumulation than confirmation of a new trend driven market." He also warned that the current rebound is mainly driven by leverage rather than continued spot buying. Once sentiment reverses, prices are prone to fall back quickly. At the macro level, the intraday volatility of VIX futures in the previous month has soared to 388.2, the highest in nearly six months and about four times the average level usually associated with market panic. However, the S & P 500 has only experienced a single-day rise and fall of more than 1.75% in the past three months. There are only two trading days. The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the volatility of futures and options market pricing is much higher than the actual volatility of the S & P 500, and that "uncertainty is at an unprecedented level."