Analysis of the Bitcoin bear market entering a late stage, US$64,000 is an important support level

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin once again fell below US$70,000, and multiple necklaces and technical indicators indicate that the current bear market is entering a later stage. In terms of chain data, Bitcoin's net unrealized profit or loss (NUPL) has fallen below 0.25, in the "hope/fear range." CryptoQuant analyst TheEnigmaTrader pointed out that this means that about 40% of Bitcoin's circulation supply is at a loss, and the combined panic greed index drops to the "extreme panic" level of 15,"reflecting pain and uncertainty." He added that a rebound in NUPL above 0.25 would mark an optimistic range, a shift that has historically tended to coincide with increased price momentum. Glassnode said the 7-day moving average of relative unrealized losses has stabilized at 15%."Historically, resolving this level of embedded losses has taken time, further price declines, or a continued influx of large amounts of fresh capital during compressed time." In addition, adjusted realized profits for the Bitcoin entity have dropped more than 96%, from a peak of $3 billion per day in July 2025 to less than $100 million today, which Glassnode called "further evidence of exhaustion of demand" and "a textbook feature of the transition from a bear market to the end." In terms of key prices, Bitcoin has been in range fluctuations recently, with support at US$64,000 and resistance at US$72,000. Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is trying to maintain a one-week-one-month holding cost base of US$70,200, but the accumulation of buying orders at this level is not strong enough."The probability of falling below this level cannot be ignored until more solid buying orders are established." The main support below is the realized price of the reference bitcoin at about US$54,000; the upper resistance is at US$82,200 at the cost base of 1 to 3 months of positions, and the intensive short-term positions above US$84,000. Technical analyst CryptoPatel said that Bitcoin's recent rise to US$76,000 is just a low high, the high-time frame structure "points lower", and below US$50,000 is the next real area worthy of attention.