Bitcoin may fall below US$60,000 and the current cycle may be extended to 2027. Giant whale selling pressure will aggravate downside risks

According to Cointelegraph, the latest data shows that if Bitcoin falls further below US$60,000, the market's recovery to historical highs may be postponed until 2027. Analysis pointed out that Bitcoin has retreated by about 48% since its high of approximately US$126,000 in 2025. According to historical rules, for every 10% increase in decline, the recovery cycle will be extended by about 80 days on average. At present, if US$60,000 is the bottom of the stage, it is expected that it will still take about 300 days to complete the repair; however, if it continues to explore to the range of US$40,000 - 45,000, the overall retracement will expand to more than 60%, and the recovery cycle may be extended to about 440 days., the time node is postponed until after the second quarter of 2027. Indicators on the chain also show that the bottom has not yet been confirmed. The Composite Market Index (BCMI) is currently around 0.27, above the historical bottom range (around 0.12 - 0.15), meaning there is still room for further downside. In terms of capital flow, the continued selling of giant whales has increased the pressure. Data shows that selling by large households has reached its highest level in nearly 18 months, while liquidity in the spot and futures markets has weakened simultaneously. The institutional view believes that the current market is in a deep adjustment cycle. If the macro environment continues to be tight (including maintaining high interest rates or even raising interest rates), it will further delay the pace of recovery in the crypto market.