Bitcoin briefly rose 4% after Trump announced a temporary easing of conflict with Iran, but derivatives data showed bulls lacked confidence

According to Cointelegraph, after Trump announced a temporary easing of conflict with Iran and sought negotiations, Bitcoin briefly rose 4%, oil prices immediately fell 14% to WTI US$85 per barrel, and the S & P 500 index rose 3%. However, Bitcoin derivatives data continues to send doubts and the market lacks confidence in the US$68,000 support. In the futures market, the annualized premium for Bitcoin 2-month futures was reported at 2% on Monday, which is lower than the 4% to 8% range that normally corresponds to a longer settlement period in neutral conditions, indicating insufficient demand for long-term leverage. This lack of confidence has persisted over the past month, even though prices briefly rebounded to around $76,000. In terms of the options market, the $80,000 call option expiring on April 24 on the Deribit trading platform was quoted at 0.017 BTC (approximately $1,207). Under the condition of a 31-day maturity and an implied volatility of 48%, the market priced the probability of bitcoin rising to $80,000 during this period at only 20%. In the usually optimistic crypto market, expectations for a 13% intra-month increase are rare. The Fed's stance on suspending interest rate cuts has made it difficult for investors to exit fixed-income positions, and traders will likely remain cautious before oil prices fall back to $75 or below. Barring an additional catalyst, it is unlikely that Bitcoin traders will turn bullish, especially in the context of a continued lack of belief in chain data and derivative indicators.