Bitcoin spot trading volume drops to lowest level, market may face the risk of sharp fluctuations

The current daily spot trading volume of Bitcoin has dropped to less than US$8 billion, the lowest level since 2023, far below the peak of over US$25 billion in February this year. On-chain data platform Glassnode said that low trading volume usually means a decline in market depth and prices will be more sensitive to large capital flows. The analysis pointed out that when the depth of buying and selling orders shrinks, a small number of large orders may trigger violent price fluctuations, which means that the current low-liquidity environment may actually increase BTC volatility. However, options markets are still betting on "low volatility" scenarios. Volmex's BVIV index, a measure of BTC's expected volatility over the next 30 days, has fallen below an annualized 42%, a nearly three-month low. CoinDesk quoted Marex analysts as saying that the current market is in a "seemingly calm but actually cautious" state before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Liquidity is weak, and the next round of market drivers is more likely to come from the macro level rather than internal factors in the crypto industry. The report also pointed out that the energy market is becoming an important variable affecting risky assets. As the United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from OPEC + and Trump's once again tough remarks against Iran, international oil prices continued to rise, and Brent crude oil has exceeded US$114/barrel. Markets are worried that if oil prices continue to rise, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields may rise simultaneously, further tightening financial conditions and impacting risky assets, including the crypto market.