Analysis: Bitcoin failed to hit the 200-day moving average and fell back below US$81,000. Historical trend triggered market vigilance

Bitcoin approached the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA, approximately $83,300) on Wednesday, but failed to achieve an effective breakthrough and then fell back below $81,000. At the same time, the overall crypto market has weakened. The CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index has fallen more than 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the weakest performer among the major sectors. Markets generally regard the 200-day moving average as an important indicator of long-term trends. If BTC can establish itself in this position, it will further strengthen the market narrative that "the bear market had ended and a new round of bull market had begun when it fell below US$63,000 in February this year." However, a similar situation occurred historically in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke through and tested the 200-day moving average, and finally fell to around US$20,000 in June of the same year. Therefore, some analysts warned to be wary of "false breakthroughs" risk. Analyst firm Marex said that whether BTC can continue to rise in the future depends on three major factors: whether spot funds continue to chase, whether exchange supply continues to tighten, and whether the derivatives market remains healthy and not overheated. If the three work together simultaneously, Bitcoin may quickly open up space to the $85,000 range. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, pointed out that this round of correction is more like a brief break in the upward process than the end of a trend. However, he also warned that the daily RSI had previously entered the overbought range, and similar situations in the past have been accompanied by significant corrections. In addition, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen back to 4.32% from a high of 4.46% at the beginning of the month, which is seen as a potential positive factor for risky assets.