CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator turns green for the first time since 2023, analysts say the market may enter an early bull market stage

CryptoQuant's Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator recently turned green for the first time since 2023, which often means the market is switching from a bear market structure to a recovery phase, said chain analyst Julio Moreno. Moreno pointed out that historically, when the indicator leaves the bear market zone and enters the "EarlyBull" range, it often means that the worst adjustment period has ended and the market structure has begun to repair. However, many analysts emphasized that this indicator is more suitable for judging market stage changes rather than precise trading signals. Mati Greenspan, founder of QuantumEconomics, said that the greatest significance of such indicators is to determine "whether Bitcoin has stopped acting like a bear market asset." Real confirmation still needs to come from continued demand, improved liquidity and stable prices in critical ranges. At present, Bitcoin has not effectively exceeded the resistance level of US$82,000. Although it has rebounded by about 35% from a low of about $60,000 in February this year, the market is still in a tug of war. Moreno believes that to truly confirm bull market signals, Bitcoin also needs to digest some of the current "fatigue" indicators, while facing the pressure brought by the neutral greed fear index and the complex macro environment. MaelstromCIOArthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that Bitcoin has completed its phased bottom around US$60,000 this year. He said that once it exceeds $90,000, the market may enter an "explosive stage" and the target will be redirected to the previous high of $126,000. At the same time, some analysts have also warned that on-chain indicators such as MVRV and NUPL are essentially more inclined to the "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be regarded as absolute prediction tools.