Economist: Even if the US and Iran reach an agreement, oil prices will not return to pre-conflict levels this year

On May 25, Shane Oliver, chief economist at Australia wealth management company AMP, said that even if the United States and Iran reach an agreement, global oil prices benchmarks are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels this year. He pointed out that it would be some time before ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz again, and that the market could factor in a higher risk premium to deal with potential supply disruptions in the future. Before the conflict, WTI crude oil traded at about $67 a barrel. Oliver estimates that considering the additional risk premium, WTI crude could end the year at around $80 per barrel, while Brent crude could end the year at around $85 per barrel. "If the nuclear issue is not resolved, oil prices will be higher," he said. (Jin Shi)