Analysis of potential ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran boosts risk assets, but BTC continues to be weak and decoupling trend

Despite reports that the United States and Iran negotiated a 60-day ceasefire and a draft memorandum to discuss the nuclear program, the cryptocurrency market is still under pressure, with Bitcoin falling below US$73,000, down about 2.7% in 24 hours. U.S. stocks and bond markets were boosted, with the Nasdaq index rising 0.6%, and WTI crude oil prices falling below $90 a barrel. At the macro level, the first inflation report under the new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh showed that the U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April, the highest level in nearly three years, up from 2.8% in February. Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economics at FitchRatings, said inflationary pressures are likely to persist in the coming months and it is difficult for the Fed to ignore this supply shock that drives potential inflation. Market analysis pointed out that in the short term, macro positive factors will significantly boost the stock market and oil prices, but the crypto market lacks similar direct stimulus, and Bitcoin and other digital assets are still facing selling pressure.