Analysts market is digesting panic. Indicators on the chain show that Bitcoin has a bottom-line expected structure

Chain analyst Murphy posted that BTC fell below the US$60,000 integer mark yesterday, but market losses and sentiment indicators did not deteriorate simultaneously. The current three-day average of adjusted realized losses (EARL) is $1.13 billion, almost halving from the February 5 figure. It believes that this does not mean that BTC will not continue to fall in the future, but when the price is lower, EARL has not moved further. It is a standard structure with "bottom expectations". If EARL represents the level of market panic, STH-RUL (Relative Unrealized Loss for Short-Term Holders) represents the psychological pressure experienced by new investors. During the decline after entering a bear market, short-term holders usually experience a severe psychological limit pressure, and STH-RUL will exceed +5 standard deviations, corresponding to a systemic crisis. Even if the price falls further since then, STH-RUL will often not exceed the previous peak again, because the chips have already changed hands in the high-loss range, the cost of new buyers will be lower, and market pressure is being absorbed. Murphy believes that EARL and STH-RUL are currently giving consistent signals that market panic is digesting rather than spreading. Prices have hit new lows, but loss indicators have not simultaneously hit new highs. This is not a sufficient condition for a bottom, but almost all real bottoms in history have this characteristic. Bottom-building is a process of repeated pressure and digestion. Until the chips change hands in panic and the cost of new buyers is low enough, prices will gradually lose momentum to continue falling.