Analysis: Data on the chain releases bearish signals Bitcoin rebounds and faces continued selling pressure

BitfinexAlpha's latest report pointed out that Bitcoin has entered a deeper adjustment stage, falling to a minimum of US$59,200, a cumulative retreat of 53% from the historical high in October 2025. The decline was mainly affected by factors such as record capital outflows from spot ETFs, deleveraging of derivatives and continued pressure from the high interest rate macro environment. At present, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond remains above 4.45%, and the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has further cooled. On-chain and capital flow data show that the current market is closer to the "allocation stage" than to a "panic selling". The cumulative spot volume margin (CVD) has turned significantly negative from the previous strong accumulation from April to May, indicating that buyers have continued to leave the market in the near future. At the same time, the short-term holder cost base has fallen below the real market average of US$77,800, which means that a large number of new investors are in a floating loss state, bringing strong selling pressure for subsequent rebounds. As the price gradually approaches the overall realized cost base of approximately US$53,900, the market's characteristics of reducing positions every rebound become increasingly obvious. At the macro level, the U.S. economy still maintains growth, but inflation erodes residents 'real income. The job market performed steadily, with job vacancies reaching a new high in the past two years. New jobs continued to exceed the population replacement level. The medical, manufacturing, construction and leisure services industries all maintained expansion. However, inflation growth is expected to continue to outpace wage growth, leading to a decline in real purchasing power and exposing the Fed to a more complex balance between maintaining employment and controlling inflation. The key driver of current market trends has shifted to real yields. Affected by rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, inflation expectations continue to heat up, pushing the nominal and real yields of U.S. Treasury bonds higher simultaneously. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, causing investors to reassess risky asset allocations. Bitcoin bore the brunt. The U.S. spot ETF experienced the largest outflow of funds since its listing, and the market also shifted from betting on interest rate cuts to pricing the risk of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer time." BitfinexAlpha believes that at the current stage, the trend of real yields has become the most important variable affecting the performance of traditional financial markets and digital asset markets. Despite short-term pressure, the institutionalization process is still advancing. The report pointed out that Securitize was approved to land on the New York Stock Exchange, which means that tokenized infrastructure is being further integrated into the traditional financial system; at the same time, the U.S. GENIUS Act promotes the construction of a regulatory framework for stablecoins and includes issuers in similar compliance with traditional financial institutions. The Bitcoin institutional market is also maturing. Whether it is ETF outflows or Strategy balance sheet adjustment strategies, they are more like regular asset allocation behavior than weakening institutional confidence. Overall, digital assets are gradually being absorbed by the mainstream financial system and are affected by the same macro environment, regulatory framework and capital allocation logic as traditional assets.