Wintermute: Bitcoin's bottom has not yet been determined to focus on capital flows, Washi's speech and US-Iran agreement are key

Wintermute released a weekly market report. In the week ending June 15, the US-Iran ceasefire and CPI data have boosted market risk appetite. Wintermute believes that Bitcoin's risk-to-reward ratio at a position in the early 1990s is quite attractive. Every time it is smashed, it will eliminate weak holders, leaving behind a group with higher quality chips and stronger beliefs. But it does not mean that the bottom has been established. Falling into the $50,000 range is not impossible before things really improve. At present, the position structure has been cleared and the net selling pressure has also eased. What really needs to be focused on is the flow of funds, not prices or news headlines. The real turning point in the last cycle was the continued growth in inflows of ETFs and stablecoins, and there is no sign of this yet. Therefore, blindly pursuing any wave of rising prices will not help. In the short term, Washi's speech on Wednesday was key. If dovish sentiment predicts a weakening of core interest rates and a fall in oil prices, the market will usher in good news; if hawkish sentiment predicts a 4.2% increase in interest rates, the good news will end. Beyond that, it is the agreement signed by the United States and Iran in Switzerland on Friday that really matters.