"Federal Reserve's megaphone": Walsh's debut has three highlights

On June 17, Nick Timiraos, the "sounding board of the Federal Reserve", said that there were three highlights in the first Fed meeting chaired by Walsh. 1. Will the expression "tendency to relax" be cancelled? If cancelled, what will be replaced? Since 2024, the sentence about "additional adjustments" in the policy statement has been sending a signal to the outside world that the next change in interest rates is more likely to be a downward adjustment rather than an upward adjustment. This statement aroused objections at the last Fed meeting, but now it seems a little shaky. Eliminating it would satisfy all parties: hawks want it gone, and Washi could portray it as a reform rather than a signal to a hawkish stance. Even Trump announced the move at Walsh's swearing-in ceremony. 2. Will "dot map" become a guide tool? Who would predict a rate hike? The Federal Reserve will issue its first interest rate forecast since March, when 12 of 19 officials expected a rate cut at least once in 2026. Now, most people don't expect a rate cut; I'm looking at how many predict a rate hike-and whether Walsh, who has long been skeptical of dot charts, will submit his own forecast or downplay its importance by not participating in the vote. 3. How will Walsh communicate at the press conference? The reason why the Fed chairman's remarks can shake markets is that people believe he can control a majority-that is, his words represent the committee's direction, not just his personal wishes. Walsh leads a group that is divided and may not be entirely under his control. If he can faithfully convey the views of his colleagues, he can begin to establish the authority to speak on their behalf; otherwise, if he cannot, colleagues will express their opinions elsewhere (for example, by voting no). Under the leadership of a chairman who tends to reduce the release of signals, those "no votes" may themselves become a means of sending signals.