The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 61.5%

On June 22, according to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 61.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points was 38.5%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 24.9%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 52.2%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 22.9%.