Bitcoin remains at US$64,000 mark, Federal Reserve's hawkish stance suppresses Iran's ceasefire benefits ETF net outflows for six consecutive weeks

Bitcoin remained at around $64,000 on Monday, falling into range volatility. Last week, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, formally ending more than 100 days of conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. At one time, Bitcoin briefly exceeded US$67,000, but the rally was immediately suppressed by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. On the policy front, new Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh sent a hawkish signal at his first FOMC meeting. CMEFedWatch showed that the probability of a rate hike at the July meeting was about 36%, and the market expects to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at least once this year. The CPI in May reached 4.2% year-on-year, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, completely failing expectations of interest rate cuts. The US dollar index DXY then rebounded to the range of 100.6 to 100.8, forming a historic suppression of Bitcoin. In terms of funds, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF has recorded net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with a cumulative net outflow of US$63.5 billion in the past 30 days, setting a historical record. Signs of institutional capital return remain unclear. In the options market, the one-month implied volatility is about 39%, but the realized volatility has risen to more than 42%. Actual price fluctuations have exceeded market pricing, showing fatigue rather than directional confidence. Short options positions of about $1.8 billion are accumulated below $62,000. Once the price falls below this level, the selling pressure that market makers are forced to hedge will further accelerate downward, possibly triggering a stampede decline to $60,000. Analysts have set the near-term range for Bitcoin at US$60,000 to US$67,000, arguing that the market is in a "balance between supporting and suppressing forces."