Goldman Sachs raises South Korea's real GDP growth forecast this year to 2.7%

On June 23, Goldman Sachs issued a report stating that the AI capital expenditure boom is showing a stronger and more lasting trend than expected for South Korea's chip cycle. The bank expects the AI-driven super surplus to accelerate through the end of the year, pushing total exports to exceed US$1 trillion, and the current account surplus to a record high of about 15% of GDP. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for South Korea's real GDP growth in 2026 to 2.7%(10 basis points) and 2.3%(40 basis points) in 2027, both higher than the market consensus, mainly due to AI's impact through capital expenditures, R & D and wealth effects. A stronger and more lasting impact. Under the latest basic assumptions for the restart of the Strait of Hormuz, the bank left its inflation forecast unchanged at 2.6% and 2.2% respectively, extended the interest rate hike cycle to 2027, and raised its terminal policy interest rate forecast from 3% to 3.25%.