The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 71.7%

On July 2, according to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 71.7%, and the probability of raising interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points is 28.3%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 36.1%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 49.8%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 14.1%.