UBS raises storage price forecast: DRAM/NAND price increase cycle extends into 2027

On July 4, UBS's latest industry survey showed that the upside potential for memory chip prices will further expand in the second half of 2026. DDR contract prices are expected to be raised: a month-on-month increase of 32% in the third quarter of 2026 (previously expected to be 17%) and an increase of 18% in the fourth quarter (previously 12%), continuing to strengthen after a significant 67% increase in the second quarter. NAND has also been revised upwards, and is expected to rise by 30% month-on-month in the third quarter and 12% month-on-month in the fourth quarter, continuing its strong cyclical performance. Analysts believe that supply and demand in the DRAM industry will remain tight until at least the first half of 2028. In 2027, chip demand will grow by about 36.2%, which is significantly higher than the supply growth of 19.3%. The gap is difficult to bridge, and the imbalance between supply and demand has reached a level rarely seen in the past 30 years. If downstream inventory replenishment is not considered, the supply and demand gap in 2027 will even further expand from-8.1% in 2026 to-13.6%. Overall, this round of memory chip uplink cycle is expected to continue into 2027. Industry revenue is expected to reach US$992 billion in 2026 and rise to US$1.76 trillion in 2027. However, the main risk lies in the affordability of downstream customers. In particular, large cloud vendors may need to continue to raise funds through capital markets to support related investment expenditures.