Bitcoin shows a "negative but not falling" bottom-building feature, key resistance level is US$67.25 million

Wintermute released market analysis and said that under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. air strike on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin still held a key support level of US$62,000, and the market showed greater resilience. Last week, as the U.S. -Iran negotiations were suspended due to related matters, Iran attacked commercial ships, the United States launched a new round of air strikes, and Tehran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices rose sharply for a time. Brent crude oil rose by 6.3%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond rose to 4.57%. The market has again raised the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September to about 61%. The US CPI data released this week will become a key indicator that affects expectations for the July FOMC meeting. In the crypto market, Bitcoin maintained a stable trend after consecutive geo-risk events. After the lowest retracement, it held the US$62,000 area and gradually recovered to around US$64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with prices close to $1805. At the same time, the eight-week trend of ETF outflows finally ended, with Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recording a combined inflow of approximately US$282 million last week. Although a single week's inflow is not enough to confirm a trend reversal, combined with the recent continued increase in holdings of giant whales and the weakening of the market's response to bad news, marginal selling pressure is easing and the market may be forming a phased bottom. In addition, the market's response to Strategy's sale of bitcoins was sluggish, which was in sharp contrast to the sell-off triggered by the sale of only 32 BTC two months ago, indicating that investors 'concerns about potential selling pressure have dropped significantly. At present, Bitcoin has shown the bottom-building characteristics of "bearish but not falling", but the market still needs to wait for further confirmation. Subsequent key factors include the performance of the U.S. CPI, whether ETF funds can flow in continuously, and the development of the situation in Hormuz. If inflation data cools, capital flows continue to improve and progress is promoted in the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the key resistance level of US$67.25 million; conversely, the continued rise in oil prices and the heating of macro pressures may still put the US$60,000 support to face the test again.