Goldman Sachs: Raises Brent crude oil price forecast for March and April to $110 per barrel

On March 23, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a report released on March 22 that the increase was based in part on the assumption that in the next six weeks, crude oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz will only remain at 5% of the normal level, and then enter a one-month gradual recovery period. This longer-than-expected disruption, coupled with few replacements for spare capacity, is expected to significantly change short-term market pricing and supply and demand dynamics. As a result, Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for March and April to US$110 per barrel, a significant increase from its previous forecast of US$98 and significantly higher than the bank's 2025 forecast. In addition to short-term disruptions, Goldman Sachs also highlighted long-term structural changes in the oil market. Goldman Sachs pointed out that a high concentration of global production and spare capacity, mainly in a few countries, could push oil prices into a more lasting risk premium. Analysts said this dynamic is expected to encourage governments and market participants to increase strategic reserves, adding to upward pressure on crude oil prices in the long term. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote: "The largest oil supply shock in history may make policymakers and markets aware of the structural risks posed by the high concentration of production and idle capacity and fragile energy infrastructure in the Middle East." Taking into account these changes, they expect the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 to be US$85/barrel, higher than the previous forecast of US$77/barrel; at the same time, they raised their annual average price forecast for WTI crude oil from US$72/barrel to US$79/barrel.