Tom Lee forwarded analyst opinion: Forecasting the market may underestimate the probability of passing the ClarityAct

On July 22, Tom Lee forwarded analyst Sean Farrell's views on the probability of passing the ClarityAct, saying that his communication with policymakers showed that the probability of passing the bill was higher than the current pricing in the forecast market, and that "recent restrictions" made it impossible for insiders to trade based on the results, so forecast markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi may have underestimated the probability of passing the bill. Tom Lee said in a forwarding that this judgment was biased towards bullish.