SkyBridge founder: Bitcoin's four-year cycle continues and price is expected to rise in Q4

According to market news, SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci said that the current Bitcoin bear market can be explained by the four-year cycle theory and the psychological selling of long-term holders at $100,000. He pointed out that although capital inflows from institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs have made the four-year cycle "moderate", they have not completely eliminated this traditional cycle, and the common belief of market participants will form self-fulfilling predictions. He predicts that Bitcoin will show a volatile trend for most of 2026, and will not begin to rise again in a new bull cycle in the fourth quarter. Scaramucci said that market participants, including himself, had generally expected Bitcoin to rise to $150,000 in 2025 driven by the Trump administration's pro-crypto agenda and regulatory warming, but the October market crash completely broke this consensus. He cited the trend of Bitcoin in early 2023 after the FTX crash in November 2022 as an example to illustrate that markets often run counter to mainstream sentiment. Bull markets usually start with a period of "extreme apathy and lack of interest." The current bear market belongs to a "ordinary" adjustment consistent with previous pullbacks.