Fidelity: The Federal Reserve may delay the interest rate hike cycle until December, but the possibility of a September rate hike has not been eliminated

On July 31, Fidelity believed that the Federal Reserve was more likely to delay until December to start the interest rate hike cycle, provided that inflation and labor market data remained strong. However, economic data and geopolitical developments in the next two months may still push up inflation risks again, so the possibility of a rate hike in September has not been completely eliminated. More importantly, this decision highlights the policy characteristics of the Wash era: in the absence of a clear policy framework and forward-looking guidance, the Fed will rely more on immediate economic data and changes in the financial environment to make judgments.