CICC: AI correction is highly similar to the four rounds of retractions in 2000. This round of stabilization requires three major pressures to be relieved

On August 2, according to CICC research, starting from mid-to-late June, there has been a significant correction in AI chains around the world, especially in South Korea, which has "high leverage, high congestion and high retail investors." Behind this, there are both the amplifying effect of high congestion and high leverage, the disturbance of macro factors (such as the Federal Reserve's rising expectation of raising interest rates, the renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up oil prices, etc.), and the market's renewed concern about AI's coming to this stage. Bubble concerns (Meta rental computing power, etc., falling Token spending, etc.). In fact, before the bubble finally burst in March 2000, there were at least four large-scale and long-term corrections in the science and technology market. The trigger factors for the decline are highly similar to this round of adjustment: short-term twists and turns in industrial trends;"headwinds" in the macro environment; and overheating of valuation sentiment. In the end, technology stocks were able to rebound again because of the easing of pressures on these three aspects. Therefore, at present, the market's stabilization and even restarting a new round of gains require the cooperation of these three, namely, the digestion of high congestion and high leverage (generally achieved), the easing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations or the implementation of its boots (observe July FOMC), and more importantly, the new catalyst in financial reports and the industry (July-August earnings season).