Institutions: U.S. inflation may have entered a new stage, and inflation may last for a corresponding period of time

On August 13, CICC Research reported that the U.S. CPI in July rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, and core inflation was 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations. Energy prices continue to fall, but international oil prices have risen again since August, increasing uncertainty about future energy prices. In terms of core inflation, commodities are strong and services are weak. In particular, the prices of information technology products such as computers and software continue to rise, reflecting that the mismatch between supply and demand caused by the expansion of AI capital expenditure is gradually being transmitted to consumers. We believe that inflation in the United States may have entered a new stage, and its driving force is gradually shifting from supply shocks such as tariffs and oil prices to the expansion of demand caused by AI investment. The duration of inflation may be extended accordingly. For the Federal Reserve, this data alleviates the pressure to raise interest rates in the short term, but demand-led inflation requires more attention from policymakers than supply-led inflation. (Jin Shi)