Opinion: Bond markets will determine how long Trump can continue to put pressure on the war in Iran

On March 23, The Kobeisi Letter issued an article on the X platform stating,"Oil prices are no longer the biggest threat facing the market. It is becoming increasingly clear that the bond market will determine how long President Trump can continue to press the war in Iran. Since the outbreak of war on February 28, the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds has risen by about 45 basis points. This is consistent with the rapid surge trend that occurred around Liberation Day in April 2025. In April 2025, when the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds exceeded 4.50%, President Trump began to make rumors of a possible suspension of tariff increases. When the 10-year yield rose above 4.60%, President Trump officially announced a 90-day suspension of his reciprocal tariff policy on April 9, 2025. The current 10-year U.S. bond yield has risen to 4.40%, and we believe that the 4.50%-4.60% range will once again become a key warning line. The U.S. economy cannot afford the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds rising to 5%."