The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September rises to 57%

On August 30, according to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is now reported at 43%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 57%. Earlier, Walsh's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday night was more hawkish than the market expected. Walsh said if policymakers were not convinced that inflation was falling back to 2 percent "at a clear and fast enough pace," the Fed "still had work to do." This suggests that if price pressures do not improve, the Fed may raise interest rates next. A non-farm payrolls report and a CPI inflation report will also be preceded by the September Fed meeting, with some secondary data released during the period. Given that the recent release of the U.S. employment report has failed to meet expectations and the gap is wide, any further weakening signal may seriously weaken market expectations for a September rate hike.