Analyst: Bitcoin MVRV percentile drops below 30, still consistent with accumulation zone characteristics

On October 18, crypto analyst Darkfost noted in a post that after Bitcoin encountered resistance near $87,000, its MVRV percentile once again fell below 30, pushing the market back into a transitional phase following capitulation. In his view, current valuations still bear the characteristics of an accumulation range.

Explaining what MVRV means, Darkfost said the metric measures the relationship between Bitcoin's market cap and its realized cap, with realized cap calculated based on the price at which each BTC last moved on-chain. His approach goes beyond simply observing MVRV's raw value—he measures where that value sits relative to its historical evolution to reduce interference from Bitcoin's structural changes and market cycles when interpreting the indicator, then analyzes it within the current market environment.

He also noted that Bitcoin has historically spent only about 25% of its time at the current valuation level. Although it has now moved out of the extreme undervaluation range that has consistently coincided with market bottoms in the past, this level still aligns with the characteristics of historical accumulation ranges.