Anthropic’s probability of announcing an IPO before December has dropped to 57%, down from nearly 90% previously.

According to a CNBC report on November 6, prices for two contracts on prediction market Kalshi—betting on the timing of Anthropic’s IPO—have dropped sharply: the probability that Anthropic will officially announce its IPO by December 1 stands at 57%, down from nearly 90% over the past seven days; meanwhile, the likelihood of an IPO announcement before January 1, 2027, has fallen to 68%, from over 88%. These contracts settle based on verified public reporting of the IPO announcement by authoritative news outlets. Anthropic confidentially filed its IPO registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in June this year. The downward revision in probabilities follows Democratic victories in both chambers of Congress and multiple key gubernatorial races—and coincides with a broad selloff in AI-related stocks. Investor concerns have intensified, centering on potential slowdowns in data center construction, which could dampen overall investment appeal across the AI sector. Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa explicitly pledged stricter oversight of data center expansions during her campaign; after defeating three-term Republican Governor Greg Abbott, she told CNN in a Thursday interview: “We will legislate to protect Texans’ rights—and until those safeguards are in place, all data center construction must pause.” Separately, the Nasdaq Composite closed Thursday more than 10% below its recent peak, officially entering correction territory. Although the index rebounded 1.3% on Friday, and the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, with NVIDIA and Micron each gaining roughly 4% intraday, these stocks still posted notable cumulative losses over the past week.