Democrats Sweep Both Chambers, Forecasting a “Tighter Regulation” Window for Markets

On November 3, the results of the U.S. midterm elections were announced, with Democrats securing control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Well before the official results were released, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket had already priced in a Democratic “sweep” of both chambers as a high-probability outcome. According to Kalshi’s official disclosure, total trading volume across its midterm election-related markets exceeded $2.5 billion—roughly double the platform’s full-year 2024 election cycle volume. The platform’s CEO noted that, among the first 487 races whose results have been called, the most-traded candidates on Kalshi won 479—yielding an accuracy rate of approximately 98%. For prediction markets, this should have marked another high-profile moment—following the World Cup—yet the very platforms that accurately forecast election outcomes quickly found themselves in the crosshairs of the winning party. As reported by Politico, long-time critic and Democratic Senator Jeff M