Market Sentiment Observation: Feeling Market Temperature from Community Chats

Having observed markets for a long time, I've discovered an interesting phenomenon: looking at community chats is more intuitive than looking at charting software.

Today let's talk about how to feel changes in market temperature from what people around you are talking about.

First my own observation method. I've joined a few old communities, all with people who have been in this space for several years.

I don't talk much in the groups, but every day I check what everyone is talking about.

Over time, I've discovered that the topics in the community have a strong correlation with market conditions.

When the market is hot, the group is especially lively, chatting nonstop from morning to night.

Everyone is showing their profits, how much this one went up today, how many times that one made.

Even people who usually don't speak pop up, asking this and that, afraid of missing out.

At times like this when you go out to eat, even the waiter might be talking about blockchain.

Taxi drivers, barbers, aunties at the market, it seems everyone can say something about it.

At times like this I start getting wary - this heat is a bit abnormal.

What about when the market is cold? The group is especially quiet, barely any messages all day.

Occasionally someone says something, always complaining about how much they lost again, or asking "when is the bottom".

People who used to show profits every day are gone, even the group owner doesn't feel like talking.

You go out asking about blockchain, people might look at you like you're crazy.

At times like this I actually feel relieved - at the coldest times, maybe spring isn't far away.

Of course, this is just a very rough observation method, not some precise indicator.

I observe this way not to "buy the bottom" or "sell the top" - I can't do that.

But to keep myself clear-headed, not getting overheated when it's hottest, not losing faith when it's coldest.

I've seen too many people go all in at the market heat, and cut their losses at the market cold.

Getting slapped both ways, not making money, and their mindset breaks.

I've made this mistake myself, so the impression is especially deep.

Having said all this, final reminder: this article talks about market observation methods, not investment advice.

Everyone's situation is different, don't blindly copy others' experience. Investing has risks, you make your own decisions, you bear your own risks.