The "deep water zone" after halving: the depletion of liquidity or the tranquility before the storm?

Old leeks who have experienced several rounds of cattle and bears know that halving Bitcoin has never been a "starting gun sounds and takes off in situ", but an extremely exhausting battle of willpower. Looking back at this time point in 2026, the current market is in an extremely embarrassing and critical "deep water zone."

1. Supply shocks and "sequelae of halving"

From the data point of view, the supply cuts caused by halving have actually acted on the chain. Miner Sell Pressure has begun to slow down after a month of sharp shocks, but this does not mean that the market will immediately enter a vacuum.

The current status quo is that the income structure of miners is undergoing fundamental changes. As block rewards are halved, the proportion of gas fees has become a lifeline for miners. This leads to a peculiar phenomenon-computing power surges whenever there is active activity on the chain (such as inscriptions, runes, or Layer 2 clearing bursts). This unstable performance of computing power is directly fed back into the volatility of prices.

2. Wall Street's "new script": ETFs swallow liquidity

We must face up to the fact that the current currency price is no longer entirely determined by the "beliefs" of individual investors, but by Wall Street's "time-sharing chart".

The current market liquidity shows a **"fault" state **:

1. On-site stock game: Native funds in the chain are mainly concentrated in several head Meme coins and AI tracks, trying to offset the dullness of the market through high ratios.

2. OTC incremental wait and see: The net inflow of spot ETFs is slowing down. Institutional investors are not in a hurry to take up around $70,000. They prefer to use algorithmic trading to complete low-level financing in shocks.

This kind of fault has led to "anemia" in the market: the market may seem to be stable, but as long as a slightly larger order falls, it will trigger a short-term fierce injection.

3. Looking for the next "engine": What else can we see besides BTC?

If the market fluctuates sideways, funds will inevitably look for exports.According to the chain changes recently monitored by "Binsoubao", three directions are worthy of focus:

·Institutionalization of RWA (real-world assets): This is no longer a PPT concept. As giants such as BlackRock become deeply involved, compliant chain bonds and funds are robbing DeFi of liquidity. This is the most robust infrastructure in this bull market.

·The intertwining of AI and DePIN: Computing power is becoming a hard currency. The token logic of those projects that can truly be implemented and provide decentralized computing power support has shifted from "hype" to "resource pricing."

· BTC Layer 2 Involutions: Since the first layer network is too expensive and slow, the winner of the second layer expansion plan will accept the trillions of value spilled from the first layer.

4. Guide to pitch-avoidance: How can the volatile market not be "washed away"?

In Yinsoubao's comprehensive navigation, we can see countless trading tools, but the best tool is your position management.

1. Refuse to change positions frequently: The most taboo in volatile markets is to chase which one sees a rise. Often, as soon as you chase in, the sector starts to pull back, while the sector you just cut off takes off.

2. Pay attention to the "key turnover range": Currently, US$64,500 - 66,000 is a dense chip area. As long as this range does not fall below, any stepping back is to correct the overbought technical indicators.

3. Layout in batches instead of stud: Always keep yourself 30% of U (stable coin). That is your courage to deal with sudden "black swans".

Conclusion

The blockchain industry has never lacked the myth of creating wealth. What it lacks is the patience to hold its ground before dawn. The current shock is that the market is weeding out those speculative "smart money" and laying a solid bottom for the next main rising wave.

At "coin soubao", we will continue to keep an eye on every giant whale transfer and every policy trend on the chain. Markets are changing, but the winner's logic never changes: observe in fear and lay out in shock.