Retail traders perform worse than sports betting users in the prediction market

On March 25, since mid-2025, the median return for retail users in the forecast market was-8%, compared with-5% for legal sports betting users, performing even worse; only a small proportion of forecast market traders with the highest trading volume were able to continue to make profits. Because the forecast market does not restrict profitable players, retail traders are more directly exposed to professional traders and market makers. While gaming industry executives say the forecast market has not yet caused a substantial erosion of existing sports betting revenue, platforms like Kalshi are attracting a younger user base and achieving strong download growth, potentially grabbing the next generation of betting users before users sign up for DraftKings or FanDuel.