Morgan Stanley predicts that global AI-related bond issuance will be close to US$570 billion in 2026

On June 10, Morgan Stanley's latest forecast showed that global AI-related bond issuance in 2026 is expected to approach US$570 billion, more than double last year. As of the end of May, approximately US$236 billion in AI-related debt financing had been issued globally, about four times that of the same period last year. As capital expenditures of ultra-large cloud service providers are expected to exceed US$1 trillion in 2027, Morgan Stanley expects that the pace of bond issuance will further accelerate in the second half of the year. In order to broaden financing channels, giants such as Alphabet and Amazon have issued a large number of euro bonds, with financing currencies extending outward from the US dollar market. Semiconductor companies are increasingly inclined to adopt short-term financing with an amortization structure. The fundamental reason for the surge in AI debt is that the capital expenditures of technology giants have seriously exceeded their own earnings coverage. Bank of America data shows that Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle will issue a total of US$121 billion in U.S. corporate bonds in 2025, far exceeding the average annual level of US$28 billion from 2020 to 2024; UBS estimates that in 2026, capital expenditures of ultra-large-scale cloud merchants are expected to consume nearly 100% of operating cash flow, with a ten-year average of only about 40%. Debt financing just fills the gap. In addition to issuing bonds, equity financing has also accelerated its entry-Google has recently completed equity capital financing totaling US$84.75 billion. Barclays expects the possibility of Meta, Microsoft and Amazon issuing equity, compulsory convertible bonds or equity-linked securities in the future. Will increase significantly.