Goldman Sachs: Lowering global smartphone shipment forecast this year and next, high memory chip prices drag down demand

On June 20, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2026 and 2027 on the grounds that memory chip prices continued to rise and drag down market demand. It also expected that the product structure would continue to tilt towards high-end models. Goldman Sachs lowered its global smartphone shipment forecast for 2026 and 2027 by 4% and 3% respectively to 1.14 billion and 1.17 billion units, meaning shipments will fall by 10% this year and rise by 3% in 2027. Goldman Sachs also proposed for the first time a forecast for shipments in 2028 of 1.18 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 1%. Goldman Sachs predicts that the market size will increase by 3% to US$596 billion in 2026, and by another 2% in 2027 and 2028, to US$606 billion and US$621 billion respectively. The bank pointed out that rising memory costs and an increased proportion of high-end models priced at more than $600 will support overall market revenue growth against the backdrop of declining shipments.