SamsonMow asserts that Bitcoin has reached its bottom, and analysts have intensified their differences in opinion in the market outlook

On June 28, Jan 3CEO SamsonMow asserted today that Bitcoin "the bottom has reached". Its core argument is that Bitcoin hit a record high 37 days before the halving in April 2024. This abnormal advance shows that the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated, and historically reliable time patterns no longer apply. "Even if you believe in cycles, you should deduce that cycles have accelerated." But the market is far from reaching a consensus: 10xResearch founder Markus Thielen believes that the bottom is more likely to be $55000, with a time window between August and October;BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes is more bearish, predicting that Bitcoin will hit about $40000 in six months; Senior analyst James VanStraten pointed out that Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-week moving average. On-chain data suggests that the US$50000 to US$54000 range may become the next key battlefield. Since 2011, every major bear market Bitcoin will eventually fall below the realized price before establishing the bottom of the cycle. This signal has not yet appeared in the current cycle.