SamsonMow asserts that Bitcoin has reached the bottom, and analysts 'differences in opinion have intensified

Jan 3CEO SamsonMow asserted today that Bitcoin "the bottom has reached". The core argument is that Bitcoin hit a record high 37 days before the halving in April 2024. This abnormal advance indicates that the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated and historically reliable time patterns no longer apply. "Even if you believe in cycles, you should deduce that cycles have accelerated." But the market is far from reaching a consensus: 10xResearch founder MarkusThielen believes that the bottom is more likely to be $55,000, with a time window between August and October;BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes is more bearish, predicting that Bitcoin will hit about $40,000 in six months; Senior analyst James VanStraten pointed out that Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-week moving average, and on-chain data suggests that the US$50,000 to US$54,000 range may become the next key battlefield. Since 2011, every major bear market Bitcoin will eventually fall below the realized price to establish the bottom of the cycle, and this signal has not yet appeared in the current cycle.