Mizuho: If the CLARITY Act is passed or long-term negative for Circle and USDC

On July 23, Mizuho Bank analysts released a research report on July 22, pointing out that if the CLARITY Act finally becomes law, it may pose a long-term negative for Circle and its USDC stablecoins. Analyst DanDolev's team believes that the regulatory certainty brought by the bill will attract more institutional competitors to enter the stablecoin market, accelerate the commercialization of stablecoin, and ultimately erode Circle's revenue. Circle had previously been downgraded by Mizuho due to the launch of the OpenUSD project. OpenUSD is jointly launched by more than 140 financial, technology and encryption companies including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock and Coinbase. It adopts a "straight-through" model and distributes most of the reserve income to distributors, charging only a small management fee. In contrast, Circle retains approximately 38% of USDC's reserve revenue and shares it with partners such as Coinbase and Binance. Mizuho also pointed out that Coinbase, as the largest distributor of USDC, may gain more bargaining space in the next round of revenue sharing negotiations with Circle because it has endorsed OpenUSD. The agreement between the two parties can be renegotiated as soon as next month. On the same day, the CLARITY Bill moved a step forward towards legislation. The Republican Party announced the latest text and is expected to be submitted to the Senate for a vote as soon as next week. However, controversy over the ethics clause may still affect final passage.