Hong Hao: The long-term value of Bitcoin stems from scarcity and the cyclical window of the decentralized credit system may open in the third and fourth quarters of this year

On July 31, at the Binance offline private event, famous economist Hong Hao shared his latest views on the long-term value and market cycle of Bitcoin. Hong Hao said that the long-term logic of Bitcoin is very clear. Its fixed supply ceiling of 21 million pieces determines its scarcity and builds a value foundation that is different from the traditional fiat currency system. Talking about the relationship between Bitcoin and gold, Hong Hao said that both have scarcity and long-term value storage properties, but the sources of credit are different. Gold has thousands of years of human credit accumulation, while Bitcoin relies on a decentralized network and fixed supply mechanism to form a new credit system. In the long run, the gold target is $10,000 and the Bitcoin target is $1 million. Regarding the Bitcoin cycle that the market is concerned about, Hong Hao pointed out that limited supply determines the natural cyclical nature of such assets. He believes that according to his team's cycle model, an important time window for a new cycle may be ushered in during the alternating period of the third and fourth quarters of this year. However, he also reminded investors to remain patient despite the approaching time window and wait for market uncertainty to clear further.