The probability of passing the CLARITYAct during the year dropped to 13% and will welcome a procedural vote in the Senate on September 15

On September 1, prediction market platform Polymarket showed that the implied probability that CLARITYAct will be passed and become law in 2026 is 13%, and the related contract transaction volume is approximately US$11.5 million, a significant drop from the 82% market pricing in February. The U.S. Senate plans to hold a procedural vote on the bill on September 15. The closed-debate motion to initiate the vote was proposed by Majority Leader John Thune and usually requires 60 votes. Forecasting market platform Kalshi gave a 91% probability of holding a Senate vote before October 1, and the relevant market transaction volume exceeded US$1.25 million. CLARITYAct proposes to establish a federal regulatory framework for the crypto market, with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusively supervising the spot digital commodity market, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) responsible for some securities issuance and exchange activities. The bill still faces disagreements such as conflicts of interest between officials and the crypto industry, stablecoin gains, and decentralized finance and protection for unmanaged software developers.