Next week's macro outlook: Gathering US-Iran negotiations and Fed personnel changes The situation in the Middle East has repeatedly disturbed the market

Global markets have rebounded significantly in the past week driven by expectations of easing the situation in the Middle East, but core uncertainties have not yet been lifted. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices fell rapidly, risky assets strengthened across the board, U.S. stocks hit new highs, the US dollar weakened, and gold approached the US$4900 mark. However, then Iran issued a signal that "still under military control", adding that the United States maintained its blockade against Iraq, and the market's repeated concerns about the situation rose.<br /> At the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of the US-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump said that negotiations may advance over the weekend, saying that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire may be terminated and the conflict risks restarting. However, Iran remains cautious about negotiations, especially on key issues such as uranium enrichment. Differences are obvious. The market has currently shifted from "conflict escalation pricing" to "mitigation path pricing", but any sudden changes may still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.<br /> In terms of interest rate expectations, the fall in energy prices has eased inflationary pressures, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates during the year have rebounded to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Walsh will appear at a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether he is biased) will become an important variable affecting gold and risky assets.<br /> At 20:30 on Tuesday, the monthly rate of US retail sales in March;<br /> At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending April 18;<br /> At 21:45 on Thursday, the initial US S & P's global manufacturing/services PMI for April;<br /> At 22:00 on Friday, the final value of the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April and the final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation;<br /> In the short term, the main market line will focus on three major variables: the progress of the US-Iran negotiations, the trend of oil prices, and the Federal Reserve's policy signals.