Bitcoin's June correction triggered $8.6 billion in options to be fictitious, 80% of positions were approaching expiration or amplified fluctuations

Data from market data platform Deribit shows that as Bitcoin continued to fall in June, there was a significant imbalance in the options market that was about to expire this month. About US$8.6 billion in nominal value of BTC options were in an out-of-the-money (OTM) state and faced zero risk when they expired. Data shows that of the approximately US$10.6 billion in open options contracts due on June 26, only about 20% are in the money (ITM), and the remaining 80% are currently at a loss. The analysis pointed out that this structural imbalance may trigger concentrated hedging adjustments by market makers and traders before expiration, thereby amplifying short-term market fluctuations. The current market's largest pain point price (MaxPain) is around US$74,000, which is about 14% higher than Bitcoin's current price of approximately US$65,000. In theory, this price level means that most option contracts will return to zero, so it may have an upward pulling effect on prices near expiration, but the effectiveness of this mechanism in the crypto market remains controversial. In addition, the bullish and bearish structures in the options market are relatively close, with a Put/Call ratio of approximately 0.87, indicating an increased divergence in market sentiment. Of this, approximately US$450 million is concentrated in US$60,000 put options, while US$80,000 call options also form a key resistance level of approximately US$406 million. Analysts believe that as the quarterly expiration approaches, concentrated exercise and hedging adjustments may become important drivers of short-term price fluctuations, and Bitcoin may face a more drastic direction choice window.