Analyst: Short-term Bitcoin holders’ cost basis is ~$76,000—confidence in their positions is now being tested.

On October 31, crypto analyst Darkfost noted that the average acquisition cost for Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) has risen to approximately $76,000—placing their confidence under critical pressure as the current market price tests this level. Meanwhile, the STH’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) is approaching the neutral threshold of 1. This metric had previously surged past 1.18 in late September—the highest level since July 2025—reflecting peak unrealized gains for short-term holders over the past year. He emphasized that the STH average cost has climbed steadily from roughly $67,500 since mid-August, confirming their deep participation in Bitcoin’s rally over that period. With Bitcoin’s intermediate-term momentum turning positive, the price range corresponding to MVRV’s reversion to neutrality may trigger a meaningful response from short-term holders: either continued buying—or capitulation-style selling, as observed yesterday. Darkfost added that both behaviors often occur simultaneously, but whether accumulation sentiment or panic-driven selling ultimately dominates remains to be seen.