Galaxy Research Analyzes Why Bitcoin Weakened in October: Weak Corporate Treasury Buying and ETF Outflows Were Primary Drivers

On October 19, Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Research, stated that Bitcoin’s weak performance in October is linked to insufficient corporate accumulation of Bitcoin reserves and net outflows from spot ETFs. He analyzed this using a metric he calls “institutional absorption relative to long-term holder supply,” calculated as: net inflows into spot ETFs plus net corporate reserve accumulation, minus the volume of Bitcoin reactivated from addresses dormant for over five years. Chart data shows that, as of October 18, the year-to-date net value of this metric stood at approximately −127,300 BTC—indicating that the total volume of “old coins” reactivated by long-term holders has exceeded institutional absorption capacity. The analyst also noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs’ year-to-date net inflows, which turned positive again in September, have only barely held steady since—currently sitting at roughly +$355 million—while October has seen modest net outflows so far.