Trillion-Dollar Merger Valuation: Markets Eye SpaceX Earnings, Betting on Tesla Merger Confidence

SpaceX is scheduled to release its third-quarter earnings after the U.S. market close on Tuesday, October 19. The market will focus on its revenue performance and capital expenditure to gauge the company's valuation and assess the feasibility of a potential merger with Tesla. Barclays analysts believe that if the two companies merge, the deal could take the form of an all-stock swap, with the higher-valued SpaceX as the dominant party. Based on Barclays' reference valuations—$2.1 trillion for SpaceX and $1.5 trillion for Tesla—the calculation suggests Tesla shareholders would receive approximately 0.7 shares of SpaceX stock for each Tesla share. The analysts noted that if SpaceX posts strong revenue growth and controllable capital expenditure, market confidence in the merger plan would be bolstered; however, if massive AI infrastructure spending continues to weigh on cash flow, the market may reassess its valuation and the rationale for the deal. The market expects SpaceX to report revenue of approximately $12.89 billion for the quarter, with capital expenditure potentially reaching $19.6 billion and free cash flow possibly at negative $11.6 billion. It should be noted that neither company has officially announced a merger, and the aforementioned deal structure and exchange ratio are merely analysts' speculation.