📢 Flash
HTX DeepThink: Security incident coupled with tightening expectations may keep BTC in a high-volatility, slightly bearish range in the short term.
On October 30, Chloe, a researcher at HTX Research and author of the HTX DeepThink column, published an analysis stating: This week, the crypto market faced dual pressure from rising expectations of macroeconomic tightening and the Binance security incident, significantly weakening short-term risk appetite. BTC’s price briefly fell below $77,000, triggering approximately $1.55 billion in total liquidations across the market within 24 hours—of which $1.34 billion stemmed from long positions. Public information indicates that the security incident affected assets totaling approximately $6.3 billion; institutions including Tether and Circle have jointly frozen around $3 billion in related funds, and Binance has explicitly stated it will fully cover users’ losses—but the pace of subsequent incident resolution will continue to influence the timing of market sentiment recovery.
From a funding perspective, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded net inflows for four consecutive trading days, accumulating $445 million in total; however, inflows slowed notably on October 29, amounting to only about $17.1 million. Although institutional capital did not exhibit systemic panic-driven outflows, buying strength at the ETF level failed to fully offset the selling pressure triggered by the security incident and the cascading sell-off from leveraged liquidations.
On the macro front, although the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its latest monetary policy meeting, the U.S. Dollar Index and U.S. Treasury yields remain in a high-volatility range, continuing to suppress risk-asset appetite. Compounding this, next week’s U.S. midterm elections introduce political uncertainty that may further amplify market volatility.
Looking ahead, BTC is expected to maintain a high-volatility, relatively weak sideways pattern, with $77,000 serving as a key short-term observation threshold. If developments surrounding the incident gradually stabilize market sentiment and ETF net inflows persist, BTC may rebound toward the $80,000–$82,000 range. Conversely, if panic spreads and leveraged liquidations continue expanding, prices could decline toward $75,000 or lower. The core variable driving current market evolution lies in whether the market can absorb the shock of this incident in an orderly manner and prevent it from escalating into broader liquidity contraction.
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice nor any offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.
From a funding perspective, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded net inflows for four consecutive trading days, accumulating $445 million in total; however, inflows slowed notably on October 29, amounting to only about $17.1 million. Although institutional capital did not exhibit systemic panic-driven outflows, buying strength at the ETF level failed to fully offset the selling pressure triggered by the security incident and the cascading sell-off from leveraged liquidations.
On the macro front, although the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its latest monetary policy meeting, the U.S. Dollar Index and U.S. Treasury yields remain in a high-volatility range, continuing to suppress risk-asset appetite. Compounding this, next week’s U.S. midterm elections introduce political uncertainty that may further amplify market volatility.
Looking ahead, BTC is expected to maintain a high-volatility, relatively weak sideways pattern, with $77,000 serving as a key short-term observation threshold. If developments surrounding the incident gradually stabilize market sentiment and ETF net inflows persist, BTC may rebound toward the $80,000–$82,000 range. Conversely, if panic spreads and leveraged liquidations continue expanding, prices could decline toward $75,000 or lower. The core variable driving current market evolution lies in whether the market can absorb the shock of this incident in an orderly manner and prevent it from escalating into broader liquidity contraction.
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice nor any offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.
