The end of the Bitcoin whale's "dead hoarding" era: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) let go of selling coins for the first time, is it a passive compromise or active evolution?

1. The myth is shattered: From "never selling coins" to "choosing an opportunity to reduce holdings", the giant whale's stance has turned 180 degrees

1.1 Official announcement of "loosening up": a key signal for financial reports and phone meetings

On May 5, 2026, Strategy released its 2026 Q1 financial report and held an analyst phone conference to release three major disruptive signals, completely breaking the six-year principle of "always buy, never sell" that founder Michael Saylor has adhered to:

Financial report risk disclosure: When convertible bonds expire or instruments are redeemed, BTC may be sold to raise funds, and the possibility of selling coins is recognized for the first time in official documents;

Saylor stated bluntly: it is likely to sell part of BTC to pay preferred stock dividends, saying that the move is to "vaccinate" the market and make "selling coins" a normal operation for institutional positions;

CEO Phong Le clearly changed his opinion: he no longer promises "Never sell" and will actively sell coins when the price of BTC is high and it is conducive to increasing the "BTC content per share."

After the news was released, Polymarket data showed that the market forecast that Strategy's probability of selling any BTC before the end of 2026 rose to 45.5%, and the probability of selling before the end of June reached 28.1%.

1.2 Current BTC Holdings: 818,300 BTC, the World’s Largest "Bitcoin Vault"

This strategic shift comes against the backdrop of Strategy having become an undisputed whale in the crypto market:

• Holdings Scale: As of May 3, 2026, the company holds 818,334 BTC, accounting for 3.9% of Bitcoin’s total 21 million supply, with an overall cost of approximately $61.81 billion and an average holding cost of $75,537 per BTC.

• Accumulation Pace: Since 2026, it has added more than 63,000 BTC in total. In a single week of April alone, it spent $255 million to purchase 3,273 BTC at an average price of $77,906.

• Asset Proportion: Bitcoin accounts for 96.7% of the company’s total assets. Revenue from its traditional software business is merely $124.3 million, reduced to a side business.

II. A Forced Move?High dividend pressure + obstacles to financing flywheel. Strategy, the core motivation for the strategic shift

, gave up "never selling coins" this time. This time, it is by no means an inevitable choice for the high-leverage financing model to be unsustainable. The core pressure is concentrated on two major pain points:

2.1 Perpetual Preferred Shares (STRC): The "blood-sucking pressure" of 11.5% annualized dividends

To support continued coin buying, Strategy launched the perpetual preferred stock STRC (Stretch), becoming a core financing tool, but now it has become a "cost black hole":

High dividend burden: STRC's annualized dividend yield is as high as 11.5%(increased seven times since its listing in July 2025), monthly dividends are about US$60.95 million, and annualized interest payments exceed US$730 million;

Financing scale: STRC has raised more than US$6.3 billion in total, accounting for more than 50% of the company's total financing. It is the main source of funds for buying coins since 2026;

Price pressure: STRC price has recently fallen below the par value anchor of US$100, and the space for financing through" additional market price" has narrowed, and the flywheel of" issuing preferred stocks → taking cash → buying BTC" is on the verge of being stuck.

2.2 Financing Logic Bottleneck: Narrowing Premiums + Regulatory Changes, the "Perpetual Motion Machine" No Longer Lasts Forever

Over the past six years, Strategy’s core business model has followed a "reflexivity cycle":Bitcoin price rises → Stock price rallies → Premium equity issuance → Raise capital to buy more BTC → Boost per-share Bitcoin value.

But since 2026, this logic has suffered a double blow: the premium has narrowed: the premium of MSTR stock price to Bitcoin's net asset value (mNAV) has narrowed from 200% at its peak to less than 50%, and the dilution cost of additional shares has increased significantly; Rule impact: MSCI plans to remove companies with "digital assets accounting for more than 50% of total assets" from the broad stock index. Once implemented, MSTR will lose passive financial support and further restrict financing channels; Debt maturity pressure: About US$8.2 billion in convertible bonds will mature in 2027 - 2029, and there will be concentrated redemption pressure in the next three years. Cash reserves (US$2.25 billion) can only cover 18 months of fixed expenditures.

3. It is not clearance, it is "live management": currency selling rules, trigger conditions and scale prediction The market does not need to panic-Strategy's currency selling plan is by no means a clearing-style selling, but a small-scale, opportunity-based strategic reduction. The core rules can be summarized as "three don't sell, three can be sold":

3.1 Core principles: Net purchases are still positive, and selling coins is only to "maintain positions". Saylor repeatedly emphasized that the core purpose of selling coins is to "increase the BTC content per share" rather than reduce positions.

Simply put: Sell a small amount of currency to pay dividends and repay debts, while issuing new shares to buy back more BTC to ensure that "you sell less and buy more", and the total long-term positions continue to grow.

3.2 Three major triggers (selling at an appropriate time, not forced to sell) Dividend payment trigger: Sell part of the currency when the BTC price is high, covering the STRC preferred stock dividend (US$730 million per annum) to avoid diluting shareholders 'equity by issuing additional shares at a low price; Debt maturity trigger: When the 2027 - 2029 convertible bonds mature, if the cash reserve is insufficient, BTC will be sold first to repay debt to avoid default risks; Capital optimization trigger: When the BTC price is significantly higher than the average cost (US$75,537), sell a small proportion of positions, withdraw cash, and reduce the leverage ratio (the current leverage ratio is 33%).

3.3 Scale prediction: In the first year or only a few thousand, the impact on the market is limited. Short-term scale: It is expected to sell no more than 5000 BTC units (accounting for 0.6% of the total positions) in 2026, which is only equivalent to 3 times the mining output in a single month., the impact on the BTC market with an average daily turnover of one trillion yuan is negligible; Long-term trend: After 2027, if the financing environment improves or currency sales are suspended, the "pure buy" mode will be returned; If the pressure continues, the annual reduction may be controlled at 10,000 - 20,000 units (accounting for 1.2%-2.4% of the total positions).

4. Market shock wave: Short-term emotional shock, long-term restructuring of institutional position logic strategy's strategic shift, is a milestone event in the institutionalization process of cryptocurrency, and the impact will be transmitted from short-term sentiment to long-term industry rules:

4.1 Short-term: The "collapse of belief" triggers fluctuations, and the giant whale effect amplifies the impact of panic: the myth of "never sell coins" is shattered, and the market's belief in institutional positions is shaken. In the short term, BTC price fluctuations may be triggered, and MSTR stock price may face correction pressure; giant whale chain reaction: Other large institutions (such as BlackRock IBIT, Gray GBTC) may reassess their position strategies, and short-term currency selling risk aversion may heat up.

4.2 Long-term: From "dead hoarding" to "active management", the institutional position logic has been completely restructured and upgraded: Strategy has created a new institutional position model of "hoarding + moderate high selling and low selling" to replace the traditional "dead hoarding" logic and provide a reference model for other institutions; Liquidity improvement: Institutions are no longer a black hole with "only entry but not exit". Moderate selling of coins will increase liquidity in the BTC market, reduce the risk of violent price fluctuations, and enhance the stability of BTC as a "digital gold"; Acceleration of compliance: Institutions proactively manage positions and rationally respond to debt and dividend pressures, in line with traditional capital market rules, will further promote the compliance and mainstreaming process of BTC.

V. Conclusion: Not the End of Faith, But the Start of Evolution

Strategy’s greenlight to sell Bitcoin this time is not a betrayal of its belief in Bitcoin, but an inevitable evolution toward institutional maturity.

From "dead hoarding" to "active management", the essence is to find a balance point between "long-term increase in holdings" and "short-term survival" under the pressure of highly leveraged financing-selling a small amount of currency to solve urgent needs and maintaining the long-term value of core positions.

For the BTC market, this is not a disaster, but growth: when the largest giant whales begin to rationally manage their positions, Bitcoin truly moves from a "niche speculative asset" to a "institutionally recognized mainstream asset", and the foundation of the next round of bull market may be laid here.