Analysis: BTC Long-Term Holders Maintain Positions During Rebound, Market Has Yet to Enter Overheated Phase

Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional jointly released the "Charting Crypto" report in Q4 2026. The report notes that Bitcoin had already moved out of its bottoming phase in Q3 and begun a preliminary recovery; for the overall trajectory in Q4, the report holds a moderately positive outlook but cautions that short-term prudence is still warranted. On the metrics front, Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has returned to the "Optimism/Anxiety" zone but has yet to break through the threshold of the "Belief/Denial" phase. Meanwhile, the supply of Bitcoin that has not moved for over a year continues to rise, long-term holders have generally kept their positions unchanged during the rebound, while the return of new participants has driven an increase in recently active supply. By the end of September, a dense cost-basis cluster had formed above Bitcoin's price, including the resistance zone that had capped gains in September, while multiple layers of support are distributed below the price.