Goldman Sachs Raises US Data Center Construction Forecast Against the Trend: Spending Expected to Reach $12.5 Billion in 2028

On November 7, Goldman Sachs逆势上调 its forecast for U.S. data center construction spending amid market concerns triggered by the Democratic Party’s control of Congress and tightening data center regulation: the 2026 projection was raised from $67 billion to $80 billion, the 2027 forecast increased from $87 billion to $100 billion, and the bank issued its first-ever forecast for 2028 at $125 billion. The firm noted that approximately 86 GW of data center projects are currently under construction in the United States, with an additional $900 billion in high-credibility projects awaiting construction; overall, the construction cycle remains notably resilient. Demand from hyperscale cloud service providers—including Microsoft, Amazon, and Google—remains robust, and backlog orders show no clear signs of slowing. H100 hashrate leasing prices rose 26% year-on-year, while GB200 leasing prices have climbed 50% since the start of the year. Regarding Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa’s proposed data center moratorium, Goldman Sachs assessed that its practical impact would primarily manifest as delays in project delivery rather than outright cancellation of construction plans—though it could raise funding costs, weaken tax incentives, and prompt some customers to cancel orders. Goldman Sachs also emphasized the need to distinguish between the industry’s overall growth outlook and the survival capacity of individual developers: highly leveraged data center developers may face severe financial pressure due to project delays compounded by rising funding costs, and certain firms might even struggle to remain operational until project commissioning.