Analysis: BTC’s “Seller Exhaustion Index” tests its second-lowest level of the cycle again—bear market bottom may now be confirmed

On November 2, market analyst Murphy noted that Bitcoin’s “Seller Exhaustion Index” may be forming its second signal point of this cycle. Looking back, the indicator precisely captured the final bottom confirmation ahead of this rally on August 11—when it simultaneously met two key conditions: low market volatility and a high level of unrealized losses among holders. Only when both conditions occur together does the signal trigger. Historically, the “Extreme Exhaustion Zone” (the red area on the chart) has only been reached by this index at genuine cycle bottoms. Once the market exits its bottoming structure, the index is highly unlikely to revisit—even briefly—the same or lower levels, even if price continues falling afterward (see Points 1 and 2 labeled on the chart). This implies that if traders miss the theoretical absolute cycle low (Point 1), they should instead focus on the subsequent secondary low (Point 2)—a level that, while not necessarily the lowest price, carries higher signal reliability than Point 1. That said, the price at Point 2 ($77,000) may still sit above Point 1. In fact, just days ago, when BTC pulled back to $77,000, the Seller Exhaustion Index confirmed the formation of this cycle’s secondary low—only marginally above the extreme value recorded in August. Murphy emphasized that this analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute direct investment advice.